National Crime Records Bureau – Suicide Stats – 2012 (Part 2)

Sad clown

This is the part 2 of the National Crime Records Bureau’s (NCRB’s) suicide statistics. The part 1 of the statistics are here. In this part we will try to explore if any causal effects are there to a rise in the male suicides.

In discussion with a few male rights activists, false criminal cases and gender biased laws were cited as a probable reason for despair in men. In this article we will analyze if the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act, 2005 commonly referred to as the Domestic Violence Act (DV Act) has a causal relationship in increasing in suicides among men.

The DV Act was brought in force by the government on October 26, 2006 and it provides for protection of women from domestic violence in a marital home. This act also provides certain rights to women such as right to matrimonial home, right to receive protection orders and right to maintenance to name a few.

Method of Analysis

Regression Analysis is used as a method to analyze the data. Past suicide data for married men for 2001 to 2012 has been used as a the dependent variable, as the DV Act is specifically for protection of married women.

The predictor variable was considered to be ‘mid year population of India’ and a qualitative variable – ‘DV Act’.

Model:

Therefore the model is defined as:

Y= αX1 + βX2 + ε

Where:

Y = Suicides by married men

X1 = mid year population

X2 = Qualitative variable of enacting the DV Act

 α = change in Y due to X1

β = change in Y due to X2

ε = error term

Hypothesis:

We define our hypothesis as:

H0 (Null Hypothesis) = There is no relationship with enacting the DV Act and suicides by married men

H1 (Alternate Hypothesis) = A positive relationship may exist between enacting of DV Act and suicides by married men

Data:

For evaluating the hypothesis, married male suicide data and mid-year population from the year 2001 to 2012 was mined from NCRB’s data tool[i]. As the DV act was brought in force in October 2006, the variable X2 is taken as ‘0’ for periods 2001 – 2006 and as ‘1’ for 2007 -2012.

The data in a graphical form is given below:

Part2-chart

Results:

The results of the regression are given below –

Coefficients

t Stat

P-value

Mid Year Population Estimate (X1)

4.64

75.44

0.00

Enacting DV Act (X2) 4,817.11 4.91 0.00

 Model R2: 0.9993

Analysis:

As seen above the ‘t stat‘ for enacting DV Act is 4.91, which is over the minimum 4.14 (for 10 degrees of freedom at 99% confidence) required to accept this variable as a valid predictor of married men suicides. Further, the p-value in this case is 0.00, which in simple term implies the probability of null hypothesis being true (Null hypothesis being that there is no relationship with enacting the DV Act and suicides by married men).

Further the R2 (coefficient of determination) of the model is 0.9993 which signifies that the model has a predictive ability of 99.93% (ie. The model can predict correctly 99.93% times). In statistical terms R2 is often interpreted as the proportion of response variation (Y) “explained” by the regressors (X1 and X2) in the model.

Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis (H0) and accept the alternate hypothesis which states “A positive relationship may exist between enacting of DV Act and suicides by married men”.

Hence, based on the data above it may be said that enacting of the DV Act may have led to increase in suicides by married men.

Suicides by Married Women:

The same model was applied to suicides for married women as a counter check. The null hypothesis in this case was not rejected (ie. accepted) as the ‘t stat’ for enacting DV Act for women was 1.71, which was below the minimum t stat required to reject the null hypothesis. Hence, the DV Act cannot be said to be a predictor for married women suicides (ie. It only increases suicides in married men).

Conclusion:

Gender biased laws such as DV Act may have a bearing in increasing suicides in married men, as seen in the statistical analysis above.

Please Note: Do feel free to comment on this post if you require understanding on any data point or if you believe that there has been an error/omission in the analysis (constructive criticism is appreciated) . I would be happy to update/include your comments in the article as appropriate or respond to your comments.


[i] Data for 2011 and 2012 has been mined from the Accidental Death and Suicides in India reports of NCRB

Home Page: Stand Up for a Cause…

Advertisements

7 Responses to National Crime Records Bureau – Suicide Stats – 2012 (Part 2)

  1. Very good article, thanks for sharing….
    Picture is very clear because of DV Act, 498a & defamation Indians mens are loosing their lives & actual DV is happening on Indian mens….

  2. parthasadhukhan says:

    Can you do a similar analysis with 498a..

  3. Raj says:

    So should it be assumed based on the above analysis that DV act is driving the increase of male suicides. So should it be called as state sponsored terrorism or a similar term? Not sure.
    But it is too bad that people are driven to commit suicides either male or female due to n number of reasons.

  4. Unfortunately these blogs do not go viral…

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: